The impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte could further deepen political instability in the Philippines and increase the risk of political violence, especially if she is prevented from joining the 2028 presidential race, according to international political risk analytics firm GeoQuant.
In its latest assessment, the firm said the highly publicized impeachment process has intensified the political rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte camps, fueling uncertainty and polarization within the country’s political landscape.
GeoQuant, a unit under Fitch Solutions, said the conflict now places two of the country’s most influential political dynasties on a collision course after once running together in the 2022 national elections.
Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, is facing allegations involving the alleged misuse of public funds and threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., accusations she has repeatedly denied.
The political risk firm noted that Duterte has long been viewed as a leading contender to succeed Marcos in 2028, when the President’s six-year term ends. However, a conviction in the impeachment trial would disqualify her from holding public office.
Although Marcos has publicly denied involvement in the impeachment push, GeoQuant pointed out that his allies hold significant influence in the House of Representatives, where the impeachment complaint originated.
Tensions escalated further after the House committee handling the case accepted the impeachment charges and advanced the proceedings toward a plenary vote. Once approved by the House, the case moves to the Senate for trial.
“As a result, expect both Government and Social Polarization Risks to continue to rise as long as the process continues, with the potential for political violence rising if Duterte is sidelined,” GeoQuant said in its report.
The firm warned that the ongoing proceedings could sharpen divisions among supporters of both camps and heighten uncertainty in the country’s political environment over the next several years.
GeoQuant specializes in analyzing and forecasting political risk through data-driven assessments combining political science and technology.