A hypothetical presidential-vice presidential tandem of Naga City Mayor and former vice president Leni Robredo alongside Sen. Raffy Tulfo is in a statistical tie with a potential pairing of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos, according to an OCTA Research survey released Wednesday.
The Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey, conducted from July 4 to 11 with 1,200 adult respondents and a ±3 percent margin of error, found that 45 percent of respondents preferred a Robredo-Tulfo pairing, while 42 percent chose the Duterte-Marcos tandem. Eight percent said they would vote for neither, 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent declined to answer.
Support levels for both pairings remained statistically stable compared to the previous quarter. The Robredo-Tulfo tandem held steady at 45 percent from 44 percent in the first quarter, while preference for Duterte-Marcos moved to 42 percent from 40 percent.
Geographically, the Robredo-Tulfo pairing commanded majority support across Luzon at 61 percent and the National Capital Region at 56 percent. In contrast, Mindanao voters overwhelmingly favored Duterte-Marcos at 90 percent, while another geographic grouping split evenly between both pairings at 45 percent each.
Demographic preferences varied across socioeconomic classes, age and educational background. Class E respondents favored Duterte-Marcos at 53 percent, whereas pluralities in Class D at 48 percent and Class ABC at 41 percent leaned toward Robredo-Tulfo. Robredo-Tulfo also led in urban areas with 48 percent support and among male voters at 48 percent and female voters at 42 percent. Conversely, Duterte-Marcos led among rural residents at 47 percent.
By age, Robredo-Tulfo secured majority backing among voters aged 75 and older at 76 percent, those aged 65 to 74 at 60 percent and the 18 to 64 bracket at 52 percent, as well as a 48-percent plurality in the 55 to 64 group. Duterte-Marcos earned 50 percent support among respondents aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44, along with a 48-percent plurality among those aged 45 to 54.
In terms of educational attainment, Robredo-Tulfo led among voters with vocational training at 54 percent, as well as pluralities of those with high school education at 47 percent and elementary or no formal schooling at 46 percent. The Duterte-Marcos pairing led among college or postgraduate degree holders at 40 percent.
OCTA Research emphasized that the second-quarter results highlight an unsettled and highly competitive dynamic for the May 2028 elections.
The polling group noted that the survey provides only a snapshot of current public sentiment rather than a predictive outcome, adding that voter preferences are likely to shift as national issues evolve, candidate visibility changes and political alliances materialize leading up to 2028.