Malacañang is framing national administration priorities around looming international and environmental challenges as political tracking data indicates a tightening presidential race ahead of the 2028 elections.
Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said during a Wednesday press briefing in Malacañang that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is not focused on survey results, as executive attention remains directed toward the upcoming Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and Related meetings next week, the current super El Niño, and the status quo between the United States and Iran impacting the Middle East crisis.
Castro noted that regardless of who leads or trails in hypothetical polling, the public’s actual choice will be determined during the 2028 voting.
Asked whether ongoing legal proceedings could affect political standings, Castro stated that regardless of impeachment developments, the truth should come out and individuals should be held accountable if necessary.
The Palace response followed the release of OCTA Research’s third quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, conducted from September 28 to October 4 among 1,200 adult respondents nationwide with a ±3 percent error margin.
The poll showed 40 percent of respondents favoring Vice President Sara Duterte in a hypothetical two-candidate presidential race, while 33 percent selected Naga City Mayor and former vice president Leni Robredo.
Undecided respondents and those selecting no candidate accounted for 26 percent, while 1 percent declined to answer.
The findings reflect a steady decline in voter preference for both figures across 2026. Duterte registered 46 percent in the first quarter, 43 percent in the second quarter, and 40 percent in the third quarter. Robredo registered 35 percent, 34 percent, and 33 percent over the same periods.
The preference gap between the two narrowed from 11 percentage points in the first quarter to 9 points in the second quarter and 7 points in the third quarter.
Geographically, Duterte maintained a lead in Mindanao at 71 percent and the Visayas at 46 percent, while Robredo led in Luzon at 49 percent and the National Capital Region at 39 percent.
In NCR, Duterte recorded 32 percent support and 24 percent across the rest of Luzon. Robredo secured 27 percent support in the Visayas and 2 percent in Mindanao.
Socioeconomic distribution placed Robredo ahead among Class ABC at 40 percent and Class E at 42 percent, followed by Class D at 31 percent. Duterte led Class D at 41 percent, followed by Class E at 41 percent and Class ABC at 32 percent.
Age demographics indicated older voters prefer Robredo, who polled between 40 percent and 42 percent among older brackets, while younger respondents backed Duterte, who garnered between 40 percent and 48 percent among younger age groups.
Duterte recorded her highest support among 35 to 44-year-olds at 48 percent, 25 to 34-year-olds at 44 percent, and 18 to 24-year-olds at 40 percent. She logged 39 percent among respondents aged 75 and above, 36 percent among those aged 55 to 74, and 35 percent among 65 to 74-year-olds.
Robredo secured 42 percent each among respondents aged 55 to 64 and 75 and above, 41 percent among 65 to 74-year-olds, and 40 percent among 45 to 54-year-olds. Lower preferences were recorded among 35 to 44-year-olds at 26 percent, 18 to 24-year-olds at 25 percent, and 25 to 34-year-olds at 21 percent.
By locale, Robredo led in urban areas at 38 percent to Duterte’s 35 percent, while Duterte led in rural areas at 47 percent to Robredo’s 25 percent.
Duterte led among male respondents at 45 percent to 28 percent, while Robredo led among female respondents at 38 percent to 35 percent.
Educational attainment metrics showed Duterte leading among respondents with no formal or elementary education at 45 percent to 32 percent and high school education at 42 percent to 32 percent. Robredo led among respondents with vocational education at 46 percent to 22 percent.
OCTA noted that the impeachment trial of the Vice President and the Naga Mayor’s statement ruling out a non-candidacy in 2028 may have influenced survey results.
The research firm added that its working hypotheses require validation or revision in future polling waves, particularly after the impeachment court issues its verdict.